Conflict Watch

Places where conflict is likely (or not likely) in the (near) future:

In Mozambique, today, the latest peace negotiations between Mozambique's government and former rebels moved forward with cautious optimism:

After 11 rounds of talks aimed at resolving the crisis, news finally came Monday that the government and Renamo had reached a partial agreement to change electoral laws -- an announcement that was broadly welcomed.

Election violence is likely in Bangladesh this year given the amount of violence from the court rulings on war criminals

More than 100 people have been killed since January in political violence sparked by verdicts handed down by the International Crimes Tribunal.

Mexico is likely to see more violence even though Miguel Ángel Treviño Morales was caught yesterday.  One might think that his capture would lead to less violence, but his capture essentially leads to a power vacuum that could lead to more violence, as rivals within the Zetas fight for power and as other cartels move to take advantage of the Zeta's leadership struggle.  Jamie Haase, a former special agent with ICE, the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency says:

But as always happens in the drug war, any time you remove a person from an extremely lucrative position, there will be others waiting to take their place. The net result may be more violence as others rush into fill the power vacuum created by law enforcement’s intervention.

Lastly, does poverty lead to conflict (an age old question with no resolution)?:

Asia has by far the highest number of conflicts, and the longest running conflicts," according to according to a new study of subnational conflict on the continent from the Asia Society. The authors, Thomas Parks, Nat Colletta, Ben Oppenheim, identified 26 subnational conflicts, ranging from Kashmir to Aceh to southern Thailand, affecting 50 percent of the countries in South and Southeast Asia between 1992 and 2012. But when you look at where these conflicts are taking place, a lot of preconceived notions about the relationship between development and violence don't hold seem to hold up.  

On Yemen

Given that I think that Yemen is going to be making headlines in the near future (see demands for secession, drones, weapons trade, democratic transition - we all know transitions = violence, elections in 2014, humanitarian crises, and continued violence)

Some facts about Yemen:

• Yemen is the first state on the Arabian Peninsula to enfranchise women and boasts a multiparty electoral system. 
• Female literacy rate 46.8% (CIA World Factbook) 
• There is a child bride problem 
• Yemen is the poorest Arab state  
• Yemen has the second largest military force on the Arabian Peninsula after Saudi Arabia

Concerns:

•  In January 2009, the Saudi and Yemeni al-Qaeda branches merged to form Al-Quaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). 
• The Yemeni army launched a fresh offensive against the Shia insurgents in 2009, assisted by Saudi forces.
• By 2012 there has been a "small contingent of U.S. special-operations troops" in addition to CIA and "unofficially acknowledged" U.S. military presence in response to increasing terror attacks by AQAP on Yemeni citizens

Political Context: 

Creation of North Yemen:   The  Ottomon Empire retreated form the region in 1918.  After much feudal competition, in February 1968, the Yemen Arab Republic was formed. 

Creation of South Yemen:  The Aden Emergency contributed to the end of British rule.  In November 1967, the Peoples Democratic Republic was created. 

Relations between the two states were mostly friendly.  But, in October 1972, fighting erupted between north and south; North Yemen supplied by Saudi Arabia and South Yemen by the USSR. Fighting was short-lived and the conflict led to the October 28, 1972 Cairo Agreement, mediated by the Arab League, which set forth a plan to unify the two countries.    Because of the discovery of natural gas and oil, in 1988, the two governments came to an understanding that reduced tensions and paved the way for unification in 1990.

The 1990's  The Republic of Yemen was born in 1990 with the unification of the Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen) and the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen). The new state, governed by a multiparty parliament and former president of the north, Ali Abdullah Saleh, struggled to unify the two countries’ economies and militaries.  In a climate of mutual hostility and distrust, on May 21, 1994, leaders of the former South Yemen declared secession and the establishment of a new Democratic Republic of Yemen centered in Aden.  (Vice President al-Beidh withdrew to Aden and said he would not return unless norther violence against the Yemeni Socialist Party stopped as well as ending economic marginalization of the south).  However, the south failed to achieve any international recognition and the south was defeated.  Saleh’s troops captured Aden in July, ending the brief civil war. The Yemen Socialist Party, the former governing party of the south boycotted the 1997 elections. In September 1999, Yemen held its first direct presidential election, reelecting President Saleh to a five-year term by an overwhelming margin.

The 2000's:  Saleh was reelected in September 2006, in the nation’s first truly competitive presidential race, during which the opposition coalition Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) fielded former Minister of Oil Faisal Bin Shamlan.  Bin Shamlan received 21.8 percent of the vote – an unprecedented showing for an opposition candidate in Yemen. In October 2007, Saleh announced a package of comprehensive political reforms; however, many were not slated to take effect until after his term  

By early 2009, the ruling GPC and the opposition coalition of the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) reached a political impasse, which ultimately delayed parliamentary elections for two years. Fomenting unrest across the country began to gain significant momentum the following year as demonstrators demanded equal employment opportunities, better service delivery and stronger local administrative authority. The government responded by implementing a series of crackdowns on dissent.  By February 2011, the Arab Spring reached Yemen as hundreds of civic and young opposition party activists held daily protests.  The crisis peaked March 18 when gunmen opened fire on unarmed demonstrators in the capital, killing more than 60 people and injuring hundreds more. Youth-led protests grew to encompass hundreds of thousands of demonstrators who took up permanent positions in 14 “Change Squares” across the country.

In February 2011, frequent protests escalated into a popular uprising driven by hundreds of thousands of unemployed or underemployed youth.  Demonstrators initially called for greater job opportunities, better public service delivery and a more accountable government; as unrest gained momentum, protestors demanded that then-President Ali Abdullah Saleh, in office for 33 years, and his government resign. The government responded by cracking down on demonstrators. After nearly 11 months of popular protests calling for his removal, Saleh signed the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) initiative and an accompanying set of implementation mechanisms on Nov. 23, 2011, transferring presidential authorities to Vice President Abdo Rabu Mansour Hadi. In accordance with the GCC agreement, a presidential election took place Feb. 21, 2012, to confirm uncontested Hadi as the president who would oversee a two-year transition.

(From NDI)

Weekend Links

• Boys with sisters are more likely to be Republican
• We are asking men the wrong question when it comes to violence against women
• Responding to Anne-Marie Slaughter and Sheryl Sandberg
• Freida Pinto says the film industry is too male dominated
• Coming to a refugee camp near you: Ikea
• Brazilian youth entry into drug gangs
• Cell phones cause war?

Renewed conflict in Mozambique?

Since independence from Portugal in 1975, Mozambique has been battered by civil war.  After 16 years of civil war, the two main forces (RENAMO supported by Rhodesia and South Africa and FRELIMO) forged a peace deal in 1992.  About a million people died in the civil war and millions more fled abroad or to other parts of the country.

The initial Nkomati Accord of 1984 fell apart.  But, Christian groups started a peace process.  Frelimo inaugurated a new constitution in 1990 that enshrined free elections, and both sides signed the resulting Rome Peace Accords of 1992.

Frelimo has won all subsequent elections. Nevertheless, the situation has been stable with Renamo working within the constitutional system.  That is, until now.

In October last year of 2012, Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama set up camp in Sathundjira, in the remote  Gorongosa mountains, sparking fears of a return to military tactics he was supposed to have abandoned 20 years ago. A force of about 300 Renamo men have remained armed since the 1992 peace deal, despite efforts to integrate them into the army or police force.  Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama says he needs his own personal bodyguards, and the men usually stay in his bush camp in the Gorongosa mountains in central Mozambique.

In November 2012, he vowed to divide the country in two unless the government gave in to a long list of demands. Chief among his complaints was that Renamo had lost out on the spoils of peace, as the country's leaders begin to cash in on a natural resource boom.
  
In April 2013, Renamo attacked a police post, and five people died. The incidents was followed by two police raids on Renamo.  Renamo said it will boycott elections in November and cause disruption, because the political process is flawed. 

In June 2013, Renamo information chief Jeronimo Malagueta said the party would "paralyse" roads and a railway link vital to coal exports.  He said Renamo guerrillas would start blocking the economically crucial Sena railway line used by foreign companies to transport coal to the coast.  He also warned people not to use the country’s national road.  On June 17, six soldiers were killed when gunmen attacked an armoury in the central region of Dondo; a large number of weapons were stolen.
 He was detained by the government.  A few days later, a number of highway attacks killed two people. 

At least 11 soldiers and police and three civilians have been killed in attacks since April, when Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama threatened to initiate a campaign of violence if Frelimo did not loosen its grip on politics and the economy.  

Though full-on renewed conflict is unlikely, this potential insurgency may have negative consequences on Mozambique's economic success.  Especially given the recent discovery in gas and coal. 

Nevertheless, the military is on standby.  

Some good analysis.