Since independence from Portugal in 1975, Mozambique has been battered by civil war. After 16 years of civil war, the two main forces (RENAMO supported by Rhodesia and South Africa and FRELIMO) forged a peace deal in 1992. About a million people died in the civil war and millions more fled abroad or to other parts of the country.
The initial Nkomati Accord of 1984 fell apart. But, Christian groups started a peace process. Frelimo inaugurated a new constitution in 1990 that enshrined free elections, and both sides signed the resulting Rome Peace Accords of 1992.
Frelimo has won all subsequent elections. Nevertheless, the situation has been stable with Renamo working within the constitutional system. That is, until now.
In October last year of 2012, Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama set up camp in Sathundjira, in the remote Gorongosa mountains, sparking fears of a return to military tactics he was supposed to have abandoned 20 years ago. A force of about 300 Renamo men have remained armed since the 1992 peace deal, despite efforts to integrate them into the army or police force. Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama says he needs his own personal bodyguards, and the men usually stay in his bush camp in the Gorongosa mountains in central Mozambique.
In November 2012, he vowed to divide the country in two unless the government gave in to a long list of demands. Chief among his complaints was that Renamo had lost out on the spoils of peace, as the country's leaders begin to cash in on a natural resource boom.
In April 2013, Renamo attacked a police post, and five people died. The incidents was followed by two police raids on Renamo. Renamo said it will boycott elections in November and cause disruption, because the political process is flawed.
In June 2013, Renamo information chief Jeronimo Malagueta said the party would "paralyse" roads and a railway link vital to coal exports. He said Renamo guerrillas would start blocking the economically crucial Sena railway line used by foreign companies to transport coal to the coast. He also warned people not to use the country’s national road. On June 17, six soldiers were killed when gunmen attacked an armoury in the central region of Dondo; a large number of weapons were stolen.
He was detained by the government. A few days later, a number of highway attacks killed two people.
At least 11 soldiers and police and three civilians have been killed in attacks since April, when Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama threatened to initiate a campaign of violence if Frelimo did not loosen its grip on politics and the economy.
Though full-on renewed conflict is unlikely, this potential insurgency may have negative consequences on Mozambique's economic success. Especially given the recent discovery in gas and coal.
Nevertheless, the military is on standby.
Some good analysis.
The initial Nkomati Accord of 1984 fell apart. But, Christian groups started a peace process. Frelimo inaugurated a new constitution in 1990 that enshrined free elections, and both sides signed the resulting Rome Peace Accords of 1992.
Frelimo has won all subsequent elections. Nevertheless, the situation has been stable with Renamo working within the constitutional system. That is, until now.
In October last year of 2012, Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama set up camp in Sathundjira, in the remote Gorongosa mountains, sparking fears of a return to military tactics he was supposed to have abandoned 20 years ago. A force of about 300 Renamo men have remained armed since the 1992 peace deal, despite efforts to integrate them into the army or police force. Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama says he needs his own personal bodyguards, and the men usually stay in his bush camp in the Gorongosa mountains in central Mozambique.
In November 2012, he vowed to divide the country in two unless the government gave in to a long list of demands. Chief among his complaints was that Renamo had lost out on the spoils of peace, as the country's leaders begin to cash in on a natural resource boom.
In April 2013, Renamo attacked a police post, and five people died. The incidents was followed by two police raids on Renamo. Renamo said it will boycott elections in November and cause disruption, because the political process is flawed.
In June 2013, Renamo information chief Jeronimo Malagueta said the party would "paralyse" roads and a railway link vital to coal exports. He said Renamo guerrillas would start blocking the economically crucial Sena railway line used by foreign companies to transport coal to the coast. He also warned people not to use the country’s national road. On June 17, six soldiers were killed when gunmen attacked an armoury in the central region of Dondo; a large number of weapons were stolen.
He was detained by the government. A few days later, a number of highway attacks killed two people.
At least 11 soldiers and police and three civilians have been killed in attacks since April, when Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama threatened to initiate a campaign of violence if Frelimo did not loosen its grip on politics and the economy.
Though full-on renewed conflict is unlikely, this potential insurgency may have negative consequences on Mozambique's economic success. Especially given the recent discovery in gas and coal.
Nevertheless, the military is on standby.
Some good analysis.
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