On Yemen

Given that I think that Yemen is going to be making headlines in the near future (see demands for secession, drones, weapons trade, democratic transition - we all know transitions = violence, elections in 2014, humanitarian crises, and continued violence)

Some facts about Yemen:

• Yemen is the first state on the Arabian Peninsula to enfranchise women and boasts a multiparty electoral system. 
• Female literacy rate 46.8% (CIA World Factbook) 
• There is a child bride problem 
• Yemen is the poorest Arab state  
• Yemen has the second largest military force on the Arabian Peninsula after Saudi Arabia

Concerns:

•  In January 2009, the Saudi and Yemeni al-Qaeda branches merged to form Al-Quaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). 
• The Yemeni army launched a fresh offensive against the Shia insurgents in 2009, assisted by Saudi forces.
• By 2012 there has been a "small contingent of U.S. special-operations troops" in addition to CIA and "unofficially acknowledged" U.S. military presence in response to increasing terror attacks by AQAP on Yemeni citizens

Political Context: 

Creation of North Yemen:   The  Ottomon Empire retreated form the region in 1918.  After much feudal competition, in February 1968, the Yemen Arab Republic was formed. 

Creation of South Yemen:  The Aden Emergency contributed to the end of British rule.  In November 1967, the Peoples Democratic Republic was created. 

Relations between the two states were mostly friendly.  But, in October 1972, fighting erupted between north and south; North Yemen supplied by Saudi Arabia and South Yemen by the USSR. Fighting was short-lived and the conflict led to the October 28, 1972 Cairo Agreement, mediated by the Arab League, which set forth a plan to unify the two countries.    Because of the discovery of natural gas and oil, in 1988, the two governments came to an understanding that reduced tensions and paved the way for unification in 1990.

The 1990's  The Republic of Yemen was born in 1990 with the unification of the Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen) and the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen). The new state, governed by a multiparty parliament and former president of the north, Ali Abdullah Saleh, struggled to unify the two countries’ economies and militaries.  In a climate of mutual hostility and distrust, on May 21, 1994, leaders of the former South Yemen declared secession and the establishment of a new Democratic Republic of Yemen centered in Aden.  (Vice President al-Beidh withdrew to Aden and said he would not return unless norther violence against the Yemeni Socialist Party stopped as well as ending economic marginalization of the south).  However, the south failed to achieve any international recognition and the south was defeated.  Saleh’s troops captured Aden in July, ending the brief civil war. The Yemen Socialist Party, the former governing party of the south boycotted the 1997 elections. In September 1999, Yemen held its first direct presidential election, reelecting President Saleh to a five-year term by an overwhelming margin.

The 2000's:  Saleh was reelected in September 2006, in the nation’s first truly competitive presidential race, during which the opposition coalition Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) fielded former Minister of Oil Faisal Bin Shamlan.  Bin Shamlan received 21.8 percent of the vote – an unprecedented showing for an opposition candidate in Yemen. In October 2007, Saleh announced a package of comprehensive political reforms; however, many were not slated to take effect until after his term  

By early 2009, the ruling GPC and the opposition coalition of the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) reached a political impasse, which ultimately delayed parliamentary elections for two years. Fomenting unrest across the country began to gain significant momentum the following year as demonstrators demanded equal employment opportunities, better service delivery and stronger local administrative authority. The government responded by implementing a series of crackdowns on dissent.  By February 2011, the Arab Spring reached Yemen as hundreds of civic and young opposition party activists held daily protests.  The crisis peaked March 18 when gunmen opened fire on unarmed demonstrators in the capital, killing more than 60 people and injuring hundreds more. Youth-led protests grew to encompass hundreds of thousands of demonstrators who took up permanent positions in 14 “Change Squares” across the country.

In February 2011, frequent protests escalated into a popular uprising driven by hundreds of thousands of unemployed or underemployed youth.  Demonstrators initially called for greater job opportunities, better public service delivery and a more accountable government; as unrest gained momentum, protestors demanded that then-President Ali Abdullah Saleh, in office for 33 years, and his government resign. The government responded by cracking down on demonstrators. After nearly 11 months of popular protests calling for his removal, Saleh signed the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) initiative and an accompanying set of implementation mechanisms on Nov. 23, 2011, transferring presidential authorities to Vice President Abdo Rabu Mansour Hadi. In accordance with the GCC agreement, a presidential election took place Feb. 21, 2012, to confirm uncontested Hadi as the president who would oversee a two-year transition.

(From NDI)